Adrian Gonzalez trade isn’t great news for Detroit’s pursuit of Werth

Before we begin, happy third anniversary of the Miguel Cabrera trade, which is worth celebrating even more these days in light of the fact that the two big pieces Detroit gave up to get him have either been traded for middle relievers (hi, Cam Maybin) or non-tendered (what’s up, Andrew Miller?).

Anyway, when I first heard that the Boston Red Sox were on the verge of acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres, I thought… great! Maybe now that they’ve added such a huge offensive piece, they’ll cool on Jayson Werth, decrease the market by a team, and give the Tigers a better shot at the prized right fielder.

Well, I was wrong, and Ken Rosenthal corrects me here. The Red Sox have been the frontrunner for Werth all along, but now, his right-handed bat would give balance to a lineup that already boasts four left-handers, plus switch-hitting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

In other words, the sell gets tougher for the Tigers. Outbidding Boston is a tough task in itself, and if the Yankees get involved, forget it (they claim they aren’t interested, but it is the Yankees and stranger things have happened – and do you really think they’re just going to sit tight after Boston acquires a player of Gonzalez’s caliber?).

So, now might be a good time to get comfortable with the idea of re-signing Magglio Ordonez as the primary right fielder, if you haven’t already. With the Winter Meetings taking place this coming week, we’ll have a much better idea of where things stand this time next week, but for now, it doesn’t look good for a Werth-Tigers marriage.

– Sidenote: on the Gonzalez trade itself, I think the Padres did the right thing trading Gonzalez and trading him now. They got multiple blue-chip prospects, which was a must. But if I’m Jed Hoyer, I don’t pull the trigger on this deal unless I get at least one major league-ready player out of it. The Padres didn’t get that, and subsequently, I’m fairly lukewarm on the deal from San Diego’s perspective. I didn’t think the Red Sox would be able to get it done without including Jacoby Ellsbury, but they somehow did. It’s a huge coup for Boston, as Gonzalez is a Gold Glover who hit 40 home runs in what is arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. If we put Gonzalez’s 2010 numbers (.298 avg, 31 homers, 101 RBIs, .393 OBP – and all that with an injured shoulder) into the Minor League Equivalency Calculator and translate it to Fenway Park, his average jumps over 20 points to .323, his OBP surges to .417, and he jumps to 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He is going to be huge in that ballpark, especially with the protection of players like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, et al – the caliber of which Gonzalez never had surrounding him in San Diego.

– Another Sidenote: St. Louis signed Lance Berkman, which is all well and good, but he can’t play first thanks to some guy named Pujols holding down that spot – so the Cardinals will put him in left and move Matt Holliday to right. That outfield defense will certainly be something to watch next year. I hope Colby Rasmus is ready to cover a ton of ground.